So, is Trump flailing badly and going to lose big(ly), or does he have a real path to winning the Electoral College? He’s one of the very few political seers who ... Wasserman covers congressional races for the nonpartisan and widely respected Cook Political Report. States), (6 Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report, expects Clinton to take the Oval Office. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report , compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. While in Kentucky, a weak GOP governor didn't drag down the other Republicans on the ticket in this ruby-red state. Before we dig into things, it's important not to get too caught up trying to defend or deny one poll over the other. "An exhaustive look at the demographic realities of the Electoral College by Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin of the Center for American Progress shows similar promise and peril for Democrats in key midwestern battleground states. In 2016, 81 percent of white men and women with college degrees turned out to vote compared with just 56 percent of non-college white men and 60 percent of non-college white women. Yes. This table is sourced from the Cook Political Report's 2016 analysis for districts of the 116th United States Congress, calculated according to the results of the 2012 and the 2016 U.S. presidential elections. If you feel whipsawed from the last round of polling and election results, well, you are not alone. Though they have more money and a better, more sophisticated campaign infrastructure, the Trump campaign is using the same playbook from 2016. David Wasserman (The Cook Political Report) - June 20, 2016: "At the moment, the likeliest outcome seems like a Democratic gain of five to 20 seats (the Cook Political Report rates 22 GOP-held seats as Toss Up, Lean Democratic or Likely Democratic, compared with four Democratic seats in Toss Up, Lean Republican and Likely Republican). Or, as Texiera and Halpin write, the biggest impact for the Democrats in the midwest "would come from a move of the very large white non-college group—probably led by white non-college women—back toward their Democratic support levels of 2012. He's (narrowly) holding onto that coalition that got him his win in 2016. This was the final projection for the 2016 election from Cook Political Report. Email: dwasserman@cookpolitical.com We saw this same dynamic at play on Tuesday night. : These seats are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged. And, "the slow rate of racial and ethnic change in these states presents a more favorable dynamic for the GOP than in the two other swing regions." Likely : These seats are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged. Cook Political Report Editor to Speak at UA’s Blackburn Symposium August 9th, 2016 TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Charlie Cook, editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report and columnist for the National Journal, will be the keynote speaker in the annual Gloria and John L. Blackburn Academic Symposium at 2:30 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 27, at the Ferguson Center on The University of Alabama campus. Lean : These are considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage. The denser the county, the more likely its residents voted Democratic in 2016. Cook Political Report Forecast. Trump isn't 'collapsing' nor is he gaining. The Cook Political Report has issued projections since 1984 with accuracy ratings routinely only coming barely shy of 100%. The Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman predicted Joe Biden will "likely" win the presidential election.. Wasserman, the House editor for the … ... NPR revisits 2008 York voters after 2016 election. 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